Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
